Brèves Forex du Jour

Europe must decide urgently

Nearly five years into the global credit crunch, you get a feeling for when something has reached the point of no return, when no amount of reassurance, promises or policies will fight the tide of markets. This is not to define markets as pure ‘speculators’, rather rational individuals and entities that are removing deposits from Greek banks, reducing their exposures to all types of market risk and doing their best not to be crushed by a moving train that is Greece. Lire la suite

17/05/2012 @ 07:19 GMT

Dollar soars after Greek talks fail

News that ongoing talks amongst politicians in Greece have failed to come up with a coalition government and that new elections will need to be called, has triggered renewed fears that a Greek exit from the eurozone might not be too far away. In response, risk assets are again on the defensive with both traders and investors seeking sanctuary in the US dollar. Overnight, the dollar index stopped just short of its highest level for the year, reaching 81.45. The euro was singled out for especially harsh treatment, falling to 1.27; EUR/GBP dropped to 0.7960, a 3½ year low. Lire la suite

16/05/2012 @ 07:07 GMT

Another bad hair day

Yet another bad hair day for risk assets yesterday amidst continuing concerns over a myriad of issues, including the unstable political situation in Greece and ongoing question marks around whether it will remain in the eurozone, the dire state of Spanish banking and sovereign finances, and a sense that the losses registered by the CIO unit at JPMorgan could turn out to be much greater than already disclosed. Lire la suite

15/05/2012 @ 07:12 GMT

A sea of red

Unfortunately, in financial markets at least, it is rarely the merry month of May. Last week was another sea of red, with equity markets on the slide, high-beta currencies heading south and core G4 bond yields declining. Spanish equities were singled out for the harshest treatment, falling another 3%, with the financials again hard hit. The Aussie is back at parity, the euro is under 1.29, and cable is near 1.6050. German 10yr bund yields fell below 1.5%, at the same time as the 10yr yield in Spain rose above 6.0%. Lire la suite

14/05/2012 @ 07:13 GMT

More dark clouds over Spain

The week is ending in a similar fashion to which it began, namely with markets broadly in retreat from risk. There’s little reason to feel that today will be much different. The focus is on Spain and its expected announcement of just how bad the government believes the bad loans situation is for the banking sector there. Meanwhile, Greece is still trying to stitch together a government from the results of the weekend’s election. Lire la suite

11/05/2012 @ 07:11 GMT

Reality bites

The euro’s break below the 1.30 level has been sustained overnight and it’s notable that the dollar has risen in all but two of the past nine sessions, looking at the dollar index chart. The political events in Europe, both in France and Greece, have served to enhance the more risk-averse trend that was already in place last week. Furthermore, in Europe we are seeing fresh signs of stress in the banking sector, such as widenings in cross-currency basis swaps and also Libor-OIS spreads. Lire la suite

10/05/2012 @ 07:42 GMT

Creeping political paralysis

The implications of events in both France, and more so Greece, are seeping through markets and have made themselves known within most asset classes. In FX, it’s created further pressure on the high-beta currencies, with AUD/USD nudging very close to parity in overnight trading. The Kiwi and Mexican peso are also notably softer. On commodities, gold has pushed below the USD 1,600 level, down 2% yesterday and, significantly, breaking below the long-term uptrend line drawn from the November 2008 lows. Lire la suite

09/05/2012 @ 07:00 GMT

Drawing the eurozone battle lines

After the initial weakening of the single currency on the back of the weekend’s political developments in both France and Greece, the euro crawled back through most of Monday’s session, although volumes were naturally muted by the London holiday. In France, there is a new President keen to rebalance the agenda in Europe towards growth and away from yet more austerity. In Greece, there is a mad scramble to try and form a government from the results of the latest election, which at present looks to be a tall order. Lire la suite

08/05/2012 @ 07:33 GMT

Europe's austerity backlash

After the pounding meted out to risk assets overnight in response to the austerity backlash evident in both the French Presidential and Greek election results, both traders and investors can be forgiven for feeling quite unsettled. Although electoral disaffection with sustained harsh fiscal medicine is perfectly understandable, it is an open question as to what the realistic alternatives are when so many European sovereigns have so little financial manoeuvrability. Lire la suite

07/05/2012 @ 07:23 GMT

Caution ahead of payrolls

Markets face up to the US jobs data today in tentative mood, Asian stocks having softened by the greatest degree in nearly two weeks overnight and the past two days having seen high-beta currencies, such as the Aussie and Korean won the weakest performers of the majors. The recent trend in jobless claims, together with the ADP data earlier in the week, have tempered expectations of a strong set of numbers, with the market looking for a 160k gain in headline payrolls following the softer 120k increase seen in March. Lire la suite

04/05/2012 @ 07:16 GMT

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rédactionnelle FxPro

Michael Derks

Responsable Stratégie

Simon Smith

Responsable Economiste